Will societies with aging populations face a crisis in the future?

2008年第3回。
264語。量を持たせようと思っていたら無駄なことを書き過ぎてしまいました。頭2文、結1文とすると、ボディは3-4文にまとめていきたいです。時間は構想5分、ボディを各段落5分、まとめを5分で25分くらいにまとめたいところです。

I think societies with aging populations will face a crisis in the future. I would show the reasons why I think that in the following.

First of all, as the number of aging people increases, we have to put more resources in the health care. Needless to say, economic growth needs education and technology. But because we will need to support aging people physically, we cannot share people with the industry for the economic growth. That is, the health care crowds out other industries.

Additionally, increasing share of aging people will have to focus more on them financially as well as physically. To make things worse, not only the share of expense rises, but the budget for the public service decreases because the tax revenue depends on the share of working people. If the government raises the tax rate to support the aging people, working people will be discouraged work hard, then the economy will shrink.

Some optimists say the immigration policy is the solution. But it is doubtful. The problem is not only on Japan, but on many countries in the world. Especially, China faces this problem more seriously. The commodity market is being competitive now. But, for future, the immigrant market will be competitive as well as product's. Nobody cannot say we will win the competition surely.

Showing above, it is hard to solve the problem about unbalancedly increasing aging populations. In order not to realize this scinario we have to have more children to balance the generations. But we haven't found the way to do that. It makes the problem serious.

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Nobody cannotではなく、Nobody can...。
unbalancedlyとは言わない。
「シナリオ」はscenario